Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 23.579542 26.818239 30.303899 34.329976 38.847711 43.756257 49.488952
2024-12-22 18.651341 23.021591 28.082968 34.360866 41.920696 50.711897 61.690287
2024-12-29 16.159309 21.017275 26.912195 34.560155 44.185256 55.859180 71.050014
2025-01-05 14.652457 19.952415 26.651120 35.687690 47.501375 62.355752 82.375012
2025-01-12 12.931474 18.343588 25.435892 35.338629 48.724141 66.092839 90.224468
2025-01-19 11.020170 16.250531 23.343040 33.572203 47.837813 66.898927 94.140543
2025-01-26 10.272081 15.668905 23.208108 34.391028 50.412590 72.365131 104.505865
2025-02-02 9.649554 15.191664 23.151110 35.268511 53.065880 78.021886 115.377196
2025-02-09 8.809581 14.304635 22.412566 35.072129 54.118807 81.428888 123.186665
2025-02-16 8.001617 13.386479 21.541284 34.586870 54.671330 84.087815 129.984248
2025-02-23 7.447255 12.811771 21.135326 34.754654 56.174119 88.167081 139.020087
2025-03-02 7.021307 12.402949 20.946925 35.227364 58.140794 92.999427 149.377945
2025-03-09 6.556281 11.901782 20.591025 35.434258 59.742868 97.422066 159.446833
2025-03-16 6.039200 11.267713 19.970166 35.163129 60.556323 100.653960 167.822341
2025-03-23 5.683190 10.878523 19.718474 35.466854 62.289502 105.376520 178.722737
2025-03-30 5.499653 10.779460 19.947712 36.587750 65.423599 112.476451 193.758012
2025-04-06 5.090349 10.231792 19.354625 36.241637 66.044691 115.484987 202.217670
2025-04-13 4.496257 9.286214 17.984796 34.429796 64.024067 113.988161 203.086818
2025-04-20 4.339909 9.164784 18.094466 35.269172 66.670150 120.444861 217.617211
2025-04-27 4.201247 9.065576 18.235201 36.167009 69.456849 127.252601 233.027493
2025-05-04 3.929345 8.676538 17.802223 35.966119 70.237161 130.604497 242.578210
2025-05-11 3.643388 8.234164 17.234582 35.469345 70.435770 132.924709 250.393031
2025-05-18 3.457451 7.984670 17.024182 35.641111 71.878404 137.506963 262.403081